VIX is still moving in both directions as much as 5-10% intraday, regularly. Especially around option days.
I believe the low volume has allowed algos and typical manipulation to keep things steady using VIX and injections of volume are apparent at key levels to me daily, especially in off hrs. Additionally, pre 2020, VIX being 20+ was not normal.
It looks like ‘real’ volume/inflows the last week did seem to be increasing (bullish trend if it continues), but I wouldn’t put too much into VIX yet. Earnings coming up will likely test (SPY ex) 370 and 390 levels again until trend breaks one way or the other.
Edit: Only adding to your point. And your point lines up to reality either way that volume outflows have been substantial this yr, so agreed this all means most moves by now for shifting money or going to cash have happened.
Edit 2: I don’t believe we will see S&P beat ATH’s until post 2023 at best. Just an opinion, but point being even if it breaks out above 3900-4000, its still very much in a downward channel range YTD.
